Author: Matilde Faralli (ICL)
Abstract: This paper studies how exposure to extreme weather events affects financial forecasts. Using a unique dataset that matches natural disasters with the location of equity analysts across 24 US states over 2000-2020, I apply a staggered differences-in-differences methodology to examine shifts in the earnings forecasts of analysts exposed to weather shocks. I find that analysts become more accurate after experiencing an extreme weather event. I also document that the post-exposure effect on forecasting accuracy is more pronounced for experienced analysts and for firms with high physical climate risk which are exposed to events similar to those experienced by the analysts.
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Authors: Matilde Faralli (ICL), Francesco Ruggiero (Bank of Italy)
Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between climate transition risk and credit risk, proxied by firms' emission levels and Moody's Expected Default Frequencies (EDFs), respectively. In regressing Moody's EDFs on firms' emission levels, we find a negative correlation between emissions and default risk. We rationalize this result by focusing separately on firms in the top and bottom quintile of emissions and find that large emitters are charged a higher risk premium within sectors but not across sectors. By breaking down Moody's EDFs into their main components, we identify the channels through which transition risk affects the EDF. First, we show that carbon emissions are relevant for the probability of default, especially through the asset volatility channel. Second, we provide evidence that the 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point that reverberated on firms’ credit risk. Our results suggest that after 2015 firms with high carbon footprints became riskier, thus mitigating the previous negative results. We document that this change is driven by a decrease (increase) in asset volatility of low (high) emitters. Our analysis highlights the channels through which climate risks affect credit risk and sheds light on a number of policy aspects to consider when including climate risk in credit risk-related analyses.
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Authors: Francesca Caselli (IMF), Matilde Faralli (ICL), Paolo Manasse (Unibo), Ugo Panizza (IHEID)
Abstract: This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.
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